April 30, 2009 Vol. 2, Issue 4
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report that assessed four alternative scenarios to NASA’s plans for the future.
The CBO report looked at four scenarios that assume significant cost growth in NASA’s space exploration programs. CBO conducted an analysis of 72 of NASA’s past programs and found an average cost growth of approximately fifty percent (50%). Working from the assumption that the Constellation program and other elements associated with space exploration will experience cost growth, CBO devised four alternatives that account for this growth:
- Scenario 1: Keep funding fixed and allow schedules to slip.
- Scenario 2: Execute NASA’s current plans and extend the life of the Space Shuttle and International Space Station.
- Scenario 3: Achieve the Constellation Program’s schedule and allow the science schedule to slip.
- Scenario 4: Absorb cost growth to achieve Constellation’s schedule by reducing funding for science and aeronautics.
Scenarios 1 and 4 assumed no cost growth over NASA’s current plans, which CBO noted is $19.1 billion in average annual funding between 2010 and 2025. CBO estimated that Scenario 2 would require an average of $23.8 billion annually during that timeframe, while Scenario 3 would require $21.1 billion.
Read the CBO report. (PDF)
